Walt Disney’s Lightyear was the only wide newbie in play this weekend (whoops) since now the kind of film that once flourished alongside the Pixar biggie (like, say, Kevin Hart and Woody Harrelson’s The Man from Toronto) goes straight to Netflix. While Pixar’s Toy Story spin-off (or whatever you want to call it) topped Friday with $20 million, Amblin and Universal’s Jurassic World Dominion is still expected to (barely) win the weekend in its second frame. Colin Trevorrow’s $185 million dino threequel earned another $15.7 million (-74%) on Friday for a $206 million domestic cume. It should gross around $57 million (-61%) over the Fri-Sun portion of a $66 million Juneteenth holiday weekend. That will bring its 11-day domestic cume to $257 million and (if the domestic/overseas split remains as it was as of Thursday) over/under $675 million worldwide.
Yes, that’s a sharper drop for the Chris Pratt/Bryce Dallas Howard/DeWanda Wise/Sam Neill/Laura Dern/Jeff Goldblum action fantasy, as Jurassic World dropped 64% on Friday and 49% for the weekend from a $208 million debut, while Fallen Kingdom opened with $148 million and fell 70%/and 58% (sans much competition). However, again, it’s a $185 million movie that is being pitched as a series finale that will have well over $650 million worldwide by tomorrow. That includes a projected $20 million second weekend in China, which is a pretty good (for a Hollywood export) 60% drop and $88 million ten-day total. It’ll end up with around half of what Jurassic World ($227 million) and Fallen Kingdom ($267 million) grossed in China, but that’s more about China than Jurassic. It may or may not crack $1 billion, but it’s still a huge hit.
Paramount and Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick earned another $10.9 million on Friday, dropping just 23% for a likely $41 million (-21%) fourth-weekend gross, a $48 million holiday haul and a new $470 million 25-day domestic cume. If it maintains its 52.3/47.7 domestic/overseas split (South Korea opens next week), it could be over $900 million by Monday. That projected $42 million gross will be the third-biggest fourth weekend ever (not counting American Sniper which went wide with $89 million in its fourth weekend) just ahead of Black Panther ($40.8 million) and behind both The Force Awakens ($42.3 million) and Avatar ($50.3 million). A hold like that means we might have to start talking about a $600 million domestic total, especially as (broken record alert) there just aren’t many live-action tentpoles (Thor: Love and Thunder, probably Nope and maybe/hopefully Bullet Train) between now and October.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned $1.1 million (-23%) on Friday for a likely $4 million (-27%) Fri-Sun frame and $4.6 million holiday haul. That brings its domestic cume up to $405.5 million, meaning it’ll pass Captain America: Civil War ($408 million) and Iron Man 3 ($409 million). With around $950 million worldwide thus far, a pre-Covid business-as-usual performance in China, Russia and Ukraine likely would have resulted in a global total in line with those films ($1.155 billion in 2016 and $1.215 billion in 2013), so any talk of underperformance is rubbish and should be mocked. DreamWorks and Universal’s The Bad Guys earned $340,000 (-53%) on Friday for a likely $950,000 (-63%) Fri-Sun weekend and a $1.1 million holiday gross. It took a hit from Lightyear, but it’ll still end Monday with $94.4 million domestic.
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